Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:14:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea7f…759c other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$239 (+19%) realized +$305 · open −$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%14W / 30L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$33
14 days+$214
30 days+$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$65
sports 39% +$116
world 22% −$37
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -59.6% -63.4% 20% 20% -20.7%
≤30d 44 -15.4% -23.4% 32% 30% +6.8%
≤90d 44 -15.4% -23.4% 32% 30% +6.8%
all 44 -15.4% -23.4% 32% 30% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 30% +6.8%
10% -30.8% 27% -3.4%
15% -37.4% 27% -12.7%
20% -43.6% 25% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$11 · ×3.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$305
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses14 / 30
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)44 / 48
History coverage18d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $68 +$32 +47%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$80 +157%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$26 +250%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $85 +$55 +64%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$56 +92%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 +$5 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 +$22 +192%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$2 -19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $57 +$70 +122%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $52 −$23 -45%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 −$12 -85%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $22 −$2 -10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -20%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$19 +305%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $19 +$45 +236%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$32 +79%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $73 +$96 +130%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $239 −$25 -10%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $10 +$6 +60%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Probably" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the w Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$2 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $52 1h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 6¢ $13 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 4d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 3¢ $10 4d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 6d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $36 7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $61 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $33 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 8d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 40¢ $39 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 8d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 8d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 8d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 8d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 8d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.54 · official $13.54 (match) · 127 history records