Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:14:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea80…7296 crypto 240 markets active 1d ago coverage 162d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 162d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$19,316 (-23%) realized −$19,316 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%50W / 361L
Whale WR10%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$343per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$380est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 162d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$18,201
sports 23% −$14,136
other 1% −$1,122
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-69.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 -93.6% -94.2% 1% 1% -96.6%
≤30d 184 -91.5% -92.3% 2% 2% -96.6%
≤90d 262 -78.0% -80.1% 7% 7% -83.9%
all 411 -65.8% -69.1% 12% 12% -70.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -69.1% 12% -70.9%
10% ← realistic here -72.0% 12% -73.7%
15% -74.7% 12% -76.2%
20% -77.2% 11% -78.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 10% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -41% → late -90% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$408 vs −$271 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19,316
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses50 / 361
Whale WR (big bets)10%
Est. fees paid−$380
Open positions0
Markets (closed)411 / 240
History coverage162d ⚠
Avg bet$343
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 411 Trades
no open positions (359 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3PM ET Jun 25 $1,446 −$1,446 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 11PM ET Jun 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Astros vs. Blue Jays Jun 25 $317 −$317 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 11PM ET Jun 25 $152 −$152 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 4PM ET Jun 25 $367 −$367 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $119 −$119 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $241 −$57 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $191 −$191 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 12PM ET Jun 25 $89 −$89 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Jun 25 $140 −$140 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $320 −$320 -100%
Penn State vs. Clemson Jun 25 $220 −$220 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 1AM ET Jun 25 $640 −$640 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $110 −$110 -100%
Solana Up or Down - September 12, 5PM ET Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $675 −$675 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5PM ET Jun 25 $2,039 −$2,039 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 3PM ET Jun 25 $177 −$177 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $45 −$45 -100%
Kansas State vs. Arizona Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10AM ET Jun 25 $326 −$326 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $90 −$90 -100%
Dolphins vs. Bills Jun 25 $430 −$430 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Jun 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 1PM ET Jun 25 $640 −$640 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $320 −$320 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 11PM ET Jun 25 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $137 −$137 -100%
Solana Up or Down - September 12, 3PM ET Jun 25 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $278 −$278 -100%
Bulls vs. Bucks Jun 25 $650 −$650 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $885 −$885 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 2PM ET Jun 25 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $275 −$275 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 10, 1PM ET Jun 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 23, 2PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $76 −$76 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $21 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $720 27h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 16¢ $57 5d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 16¢ $3 5d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 16¢ $2 5d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 16¢ $4 5d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 16¢ $10 5d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 16¢ $17 5d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 15¢ $225 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $47 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $47 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 10d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Phoenix Mercury 7¢ $3 15d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Phoenix Mercury 7¢ $103 15d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Phoenix Mercury 7¢ $159 15d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Phoenix Mercury 7¢ $3 15d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Phoenix Mercury 7¢ $2 15d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Phoenix Mercury 7¢ $2 15d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Phoenix Mercury 7¢ $3 15d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Phoenix Mercury 7¢ $2 15d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Phoenix Mercury 7¢ $2 15d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Phoenix Mercury 7¢ $3 15d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Phoenix Mercury 7¢ $2 15d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Phoenix Mercury 7¢ $3 15d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Phoenix Mercury 7¢ $3 15d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Phoenix Mercury 7¢ $2 15d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Phoenix Mercury 7¢ $2 15d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Phoenix Mercury 7¢ $3 15d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Phoenix Mercury 7¢ $2 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records