Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:12:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EA 0xea86…2605 other 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$64 (+0%) realized +$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 108L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$12
politics 30% −$8
sports 6% +$84
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 90 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 123 +2.4% -7.4% 12% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 7% -9.3%
10% -16.2% 6% -17.9%
15% -24.3% 3% -25.9%
20% -31.7% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$0 · ×17.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 108
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage133d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $162 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $27 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $322 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $294 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $161 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $395 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $313 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $159 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $153 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $137 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $137 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $133 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $132 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $437 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $137 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $176 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 19 $169 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $149 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $179 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $157 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $294 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 17 $167 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $179 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $171 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $161 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $137 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $330 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $336 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $151 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $331 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $126 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $151 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $320 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $147 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $371 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $186 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $830 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $23 8d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 12d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $22 13d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $22 14d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $27 14d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 15d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 20d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 21d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $128 21d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $128 26d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $164 27d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $164 28d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $138 28d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $138 28d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $127 29d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $127 29d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $161 29d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $161 30d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $167 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.99 · official $17.99 (match) · 387 history records