Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea87…d89d politics 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate25%11W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$1
politics 29% $0
other 17% $0
sports 11% $0
culture 10% $0
crypto 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -12.5% -20.8% 0% 0% -20.8%
≤30d 10 +195.4% +167.3% 30% 10% -9.6%
≤90d 10 +195.4% +167.3% 30% 10% -9.6%
all 44 +43.0% +29.4% 25% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.4% 2% -9.7%
10% +17.0% 2% -18.3%
15% +5.7% 2% -26.2%
20% -4.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses11 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage306d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $1 $0 -12%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $16 −$2 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $49 −$3 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $40 +$5 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $3 −$1 -20%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $71 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $1 $0 -6%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Sep 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Aug 27 $2 −$1 -56%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $5 $0 -2%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $44 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $44 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $3 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $33 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $12 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $17 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $8 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 26h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $35 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $39 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $44 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $44 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $11 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $18 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $28 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $49 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.61 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records