Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:18:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EA 0xea8c…fd98 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$266 (+11%) realized +$338 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$240
other 36% −$16
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -4.7% -13.8% 39% 39% +2.6%
≤30d 38 -4.7% -13.8% 39% 39% +2.6%
≤90d 38 -4.7% -13.8% 39% 39% +2.6%
all 38 -4.7% -13.8% 39% 39% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 39% +2.6%
10% -22.0% 37% -7.2%
15% -29.5% 24% -16.2%
20% -36.5% 18% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$29 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$338
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage4d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Under 60¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Toronto Tempo 59¢ 16¢ $100 $28 −$72 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $3 +$4 +125%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $152 +$51 +33%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $101 +$27 +26%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $30 −$9 -29%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $26 −$4 -14%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $11 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $17 −$4 -21%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $40 −$36 -90%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $102 +$160 +157%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $62 −$38 -62%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $22 −$16 -75%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $93 −$91 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $98 +$41 +42%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -92%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 +$39 +160%
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$97 +473%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $182 +$104 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $60 +$20 +32%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$3 -5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $181 +$44 +24%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $81 +$55 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $192 +$91 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $61 −$60 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $27 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$4 +15%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $82 +$194 +237%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $172 −$171 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $133 +$39 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 59¢ $101 31m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $30 34m
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 SELL Under 80¢ $202 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 74¢ $128 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 41¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $101 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $152 2h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 3h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 3h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 72¢ $262 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $102 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 22¢ $23 4h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $62 5h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $40 5h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 5h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 5h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 5h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $93 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 SELL Under 93¢ $91 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.73 · official $57.73 (match) · 69 history records