Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EA 0xea8e…debb sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%15W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$110
other 22% −$19
world 8% −$50
crypto 5% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +7.2% -3.0% 37% 37% -7.5%
≤30d 41 +7.2% -3.0% 37% 37% -7.5%
≤90d 41 +7.2% -3.0% 37% 37% -7.5%
all 41 +7.2% -3.0% 37% 37% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 37% -7.5%
10% -12.3% 34% -16.3%
15% -20.8% 34% -24.4%
20% -28.5% 34% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$10 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses15 / 26
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions8
Markets (closed)41 / 49
History coverage6d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 55¢ 80¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+46%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 42¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -28%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$15 +152%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 +$23 +1116%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$23 +226%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $73 +$13 +18%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$15 +101%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 +$8 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $38 +$28 +72%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 +$27 +298%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $15 +$9 +58%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8 −$3 -41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$17 +86%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 +$4 +68%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $40 −$35 -85%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $41 +$33 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $15 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 19h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $20 19h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 19h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 47h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 47h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 47h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 47h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 47h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 47h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 47h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $15 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 32¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 71¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.56 · official $71.56 (match) · 95 history records