Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:03:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea8e…3de0 other 2748 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,970 (+14%) realized +$23,436 · open −$1,466
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%4W / 301L
Whale WR7%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day48.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$3,324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 69d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$34
world 4% +$27
politics 2% −$1,573
other 0% +$45
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% +$61
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-80.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 261 -91.6% -92.4% 1% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 305 -78.4% -80.4% 1% 0% -9.5%
all 305 -78.4% -80.4% 1% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -80.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -82.3% 0% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -84.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -85.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -78% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 7% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -70% → late -86% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$0 · ×796.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.84 per $1 lost it wins $10.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$3,324
Realized+$23,436
Unrealized−$1,466
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses4 / 301
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions265
Markets (closed)305 / 2748
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$57
Trades / day48.6
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 265 History 305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 99¢ $1,600 $3,176 +$1,576 (+98%)
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $1,600 $24 −$1,576 (-98%)
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Yes 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+49850%)
Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2? Over 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+49850%)
Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan? Yes 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+49850%)
Valorant: TEC Esports vs All Gamers - Map 1 Winner TEC Esports 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+49750%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Even 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+49400%)
StarCraft II: Cure vs sOs - Map 1 Winner sOs 0¢ 48¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+48150%)
Friedsam vs. Zidansek: Match O/U 21.5 Over 0¢ 44¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+43750%)
Counter-Strike: BRAWLSTARS vs Clutchain Female (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season Clutchain Female 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$3 (+49900%)
Counter-Strike: Nerve of Cow vs BRAWLSTARS (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season Nerve of Cow 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$3 (+49900%)
Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 2? Over 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Odd 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
Total Kills Over/Under 32.5 in Game 2? Under 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Over 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Even 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Even 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49800%)
ITF Women Kursumlijska Banja: Completed Match: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Katarina Kujovic No 0¢ 49¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49350%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 16¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+988%)
Duncan/Ribero vs. Bianchi/Sheehy: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Under 0¢ 48¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+47650%)
Set Handicap: Samsonova (-1.5) vs Siegemund (+1.5) Samsonova 0¢ 44¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+43650%)
Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill? Yes 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
ITF Gaborone: Tanisha Kashyap vs D'Estree Colalancia DEstree Colalancia 0¢ 48¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+48400%)
Set Handicap: Zidansek (-1.5) vs Friedsam (+1.5) Zidansek 0¢ 48¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+47798%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 234 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $0 −$1 -255%
Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 29? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at <$440 on the final day of trading of th Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $165–170 in 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Hwang Kyo-ahn in jail by December 31? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next UK election be called by December 31? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in December? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Beyoncé release a new song in 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
ILT20: Gulf Giants vs Abu Dhabi Knight Riders (Game 1) - Completed mat Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will William Li be announced as the next CEO of Tesla? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will USD.AI launch a token in 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 30? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen apologize to Hans Niemann in 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next James Bond be British? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ukraine strike in Russia on 28 November 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 31? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Meta dip to $560 in December? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.40 on December 31? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $220 end of December? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 26 be between 3,0 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Opendoor dip to $5 in December? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of December? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on January 2? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on January 2? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Jatiya Party finish with the second most seats in the Banglad Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Kraken IPO in 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $245–250 in 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on January 2? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Decemb Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on January 3? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 December 22-28? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Downtown Abbey: A New Era" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $154 end of December? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Palantir dip to $150 in December? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump announce Rick Rieder as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump jail Liz Cheney? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Timothée Chalamet and Kylie Jenner engaged in 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
'Tinder for kids' removed from App Store? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic Party in 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will In Your Dreams win Best Animated Feature at the 2026 Critics Choi Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals be by 8 or BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 0¢ $0 3h
Will Team Liquid win LCS 2026 Spring? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? BUY No 0¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 0¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Dan Rooney be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Sharon Brown advance from the CA-04 primary election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.25B and $1.5B at market c BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will Bad Bunny attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will Alicia Keys attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will Adam Sandler attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 0¢ $0 19h
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,323.94 · official $3,323.88 (match) · 3500 history records