Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:12:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea91…f4cc other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$14 (-20%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$11
other 41% −$6
sports 7% +$4
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +31.0% +18.5% 56% 44% -11.9%
≤30d 10 +28.0% +15.8% 60% 40% -10.8%
≤90d 19 -6.6% -15.5% 47% 26% -28.1%
all 19 -6.6% -15.5% 47% 26% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 26% -28.1%
10% -23.6% 26% -35.0%
15% -31.0% 26% -41.3%
20% -37.7% 21% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)19 / 24
History coverage45d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +236%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +275%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 15 $10 −$1 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 09 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 30 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 30 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 30 $11 −$6 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 22h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 35h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 35h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 35h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $9 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 30d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $5 36d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $5 36d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $5 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.30 · official $6.30 (match) · 44 history records