Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:41:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea96…693a other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$250 (+5%) realized +$248 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$603now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$100
sports 48% +$347
world 1% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -4.8% -13.9% 42% 40% -5.7%
≤30d 45 -4.8% -13.9% 42% 40% -5.7%
≤90d 45 -4.8% -13.9% 42% 40% -5.7%
all 45 -4.8% -13.9% 42% 40% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 40% -5.7%
10% -22.1% 33% -14.7%
15% -29.7% 22% -23.0%
20% -36.5% 16% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$43 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$603
Realized+$248
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions10
Markets (closed)45 / 55
History coverage4d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $393 $396 +$3 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $31 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) DR Congo 72¢ 72¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 69¢ 68¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $150 +$60 +40%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $64 +$77 +121%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $200 +$62 +31%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $180 +$36 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$33 +163%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$49 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$97 +971%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $40 +$9 +23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 −$6 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 −$3 -7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $345 −$345 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $238 +$20 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $131 −$128 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $200 −$69 -34%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $215 +$43 +20%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $50 −$48 -96%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $400 +$75 +19%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $40 −$39 -96%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $24 −$23 -96%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $23 −$22 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $27 −$26 -96%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $274 +$233 +85%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $204 +$53 +26%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$67 +223%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $109 −$107 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $300 +$83 +28%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $110 −$107 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $155 +$48 +31%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $30 −$29 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $115 +$51 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $200 +$106 +53%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$84 +268%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $32 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $30 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $30 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $400 5h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $64 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $150 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $200 16h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 18h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Iraq 82¢ $100 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $7 23h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 80¢ $40 23h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $47 23h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 32h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Iraq 82¢ $80 32h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $50 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $100 32h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $603.10 · official $603.12 (match) · 90 history records