Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EA 0xea98…37d0 politics 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$20 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%34W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$8
14 days+$12
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% +$2
politics 21% −$3
other 19% +$22
world 12% −$53
economics 10% −$28
crypto 5% −$10
culture 4% +$30
tech 2% −$3
finance 1% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -8.7% -17.4% 60% 60% -14.4%
≤30d 12 +3.8% -6.1% 58% 58% -3.2%
≤90d 26 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -15.8%
all 64 +4.4% -5.6% 53% 53% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 53% -8.8%
10% -14.6% 42% -17.6%
15% -22.9% 34% -25.5%
20% -30.4% 30% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses34 / 30
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)64 / 71
History coverage256d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US recession by end of 2026? No 59¢ 88¢ $50 $75 +$25 (+51%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 42¢ 63¢ $10 $16 +$5 (+50%)
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? Yes 39¢ 12¢ $25 $7 −$18 (-71%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes 42¢ 16¢ $17 $6 −$11 (-63%)
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-39%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $18 $1 −$17 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $40 +$26 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 +$7 +69%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$9 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 +$25 +124%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 12 $20 −$5 -23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$15 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 +$13 +65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $15 +$7 +47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 15 $71 −$40 -56%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $20 +$5 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 04 $10 +$3 +34%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 04 $10 +$8 +83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 04 $41 +$29 +70%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? May 03 $10 +$31 +307%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Mar 26 $19 −$11 -58%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Mar 26 $12 −$5 -45%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 28 $17 −$17 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 28 $18 +$32 +186%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 23 $16 +$2 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $43 +$7 +15%
Will NVIDIA dip to $172 in November? Feb 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30? Feb 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Feb 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? Feb 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Feb 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? Feb 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30? Feb 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Feb 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 06 $17 −$17 -100%
Will there be no new Prime Minister of Japan? Feb 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Feb 06 $20 −$20 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 06 $23 +$3 +12%
US forces in Venezuela by December 31? Jan 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2026? Jan 01 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Gold close between $4500 and $4600 at the end of 2025? Jan 01 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? Jan 01 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Dec 30 $24 +$16 +70%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in December? Dec 29 $13 +$7 +52%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship? Dec 29 $9 +$16 +170%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Dec 26 $10 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $40 29h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 56¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 53¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 44¢ $17 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $20 8d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL Yes 9¢ $15 10d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $10 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $20 11d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 60¢ $20 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs SELL Natus Vincere 13¢ $9 37d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 14¢ $10 37d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Vitality 72¢ $10 37d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Vitality 74¢ $30 37d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs SELL Natus Vincere 24¢ $22 37d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 21¢ $20 37d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 78¢ $10 40d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group BUY Natus Vincere 79¢ $20 42d
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? BUY No 80¢ $20 46d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 50d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 74¢ $10 50d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff SELL Natus Vincere 39¢ $0 50d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff BUY Vitality 61¢ $20 50d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff SELL Natus Vincere 39¢ $36 50d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff BUY Natus Vincere 21¢ $20 50d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? SELL Yes 78¢ $41 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.51 · official $138.52 (match) · 404 history records