Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:20:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EA 0xea9b…0fd2 other 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,153 (-4%) realized −$1,148 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate51%52W / 49L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days−$53
14 days−$53
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$5
world 30% −$368
sports 14% −$800
politics 2% −$38
crypto 1% −$31
finance 1% +$30
culture 0% +$10
tech 0% −$2
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +12.6% +1.9% 47% 47% -13.8%
≤30d 18 +12.2% +1.5% 50% 44% -10.2%
≤90d 59 -15.3% -23.4% 51% 34% -15.8%
all 101 -7.7% -16.5% 51% 32% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 32% -13.6%
10% -24.5% 23% -21.8%
15% -31.8% 18% -29.4%
20% -38.5% 11% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$74 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$1,148
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses52 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions9
Markets (closed)101 / 110
History coverage111d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+14%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.25% and 2.99%? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$18 +60%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 +$49 +474%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$12 +32%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 +$5 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$36 -71%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $339 −$33 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $342 −$4 -1%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 25 $730 +$39 +5%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? May 10 $519 −$23 -4%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $205 −$178 -87%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $91 −$61 -67%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 10 $1,470 +$14 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $982 −$755 -77%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $1,603 −$1,009 -63%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $102 −$22 -21%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $304 +$68 +22%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $1,595 +$196 +12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 02 $390 +$17 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 27 $390 +$24 +6%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Apr 23 $300 +$9 +3%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 23 $300 +$39 +13%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $307 +$110 +36%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 14 $300 +$7 +2%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $240 −$240 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 12 $390 −$390 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 07 $300 +$119 +40%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $300 −$248 -83%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $200 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 07 $50 +$30 +59%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $200 +$83 +41%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $200 +$131 +65%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 04 $408 −$133 -33%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 03 $390 +$64 +16%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Apr 03 $1,651 +$168 +10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 03 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $470 +$15 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 42h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $47 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $13 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $15 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $306 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $339 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $338 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $342 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 10d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $100 10d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 90¢ $428 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.97 · official $199.97 (match) · 300 history records