Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:38:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea9d…1063 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate48%22W / 24L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$5
other 26% −$2
politics 6% −$1
crypto 5% +$2
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +6.3% -3.8% 38% 12% -8.3%
≤30d 15 +3.7% -6.1% 53% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 16 +3.5% -6.4% 56% 6% -8.8%
all 46 -1.4% -10.8% 48% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 4% -9.1%
10% -19.4% 2% -17.8%
15% -27.1% 2% -25.7%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses22 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage467d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $41 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $41 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $6 +$3 +50%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $34 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $36 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $11 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $68 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $91 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 26 $9 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 10 $4 −$2 -48%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 08 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $1 $0 -4%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 17 $1 $0 +2%
Trump x Putin talk by Friday? Apr 16 $14 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 10 $15 $0 -1%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 Masters? Apr 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 01 $0 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $13 $0 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 23 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 20 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $12 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on March 12? Mar 13 $12 $0 +2%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 11 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $10 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $30 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $41 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $41 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 29h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 12¢ $8 34h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 12¢ $2 34h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $4 35h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $3 35h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $0 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $24 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $38 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $38 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $28 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $34 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $30 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 3d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $37 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $36 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $11 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $11 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records