Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:57:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea9d…f717 crypto 32 markets active 5h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$21 (+6%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$18
sports 16% −$2
other 5% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +55.7% +40.9% 34% 34% -9.1%
≤30d 32 +55.7% +40.9% 34% 34% -9.1%
≤90d 32 +55.7% +40.9% 34% 34% -9.1%
all 32 +55.7% +40.9% 34% 34% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.9% 34% -9.1%
10% +27.4% 28% -17.8%
15% +15.1% 25% -25.8%
20% +3.8% 22% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +106% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage6d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $14 +$7 +49%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$21 +206%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $18 −$16 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$16 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$1 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$5 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$63 +602%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 52¢ $12 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 30¢ $7 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 26¢ $7 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 22¢ $6 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 58¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 56¢ $18 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records