trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | 46¢ | 46¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | Yes | 50¢ | 2¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-96%) |
| Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 2¢ | $1 | $0 | −$0 (-79%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | Jun 09 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | May 23 | $44 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | May 23 | $1 | $0 | -17% |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | Apr 26 | $7 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | Apr 22 | $2 | −$1 | -47% |
| Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? | Mar 27 | $50 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +6.7% | -3.5% | 100% | 0% | -3.5% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -4.6% | -13.7% | 33% | 0% | -12.5% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -9.7% | -18.3% | 50% | 0% | -11.3% |
| all | 6 | -9.7% | -18.3% | 50% | 0% | -11.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.3% | 0% | -11.3% |
| 10% | -26.1% | 0% | -19.8% |
| 15% | -33.2% | 0% | -27.6% |
| 20% | -39.8% | 0% | -34.7% |