Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EA 0xeaa8…3455 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$58 (+1%) realized +$50 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%12W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$528per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$376now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$237
7 days−$237
14 days−$236
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$60
other 29% −$228
crypto 24% +$2
tech 8% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -39.1% -44.9% 0% 0% -44.9%
≤30d 3 -13.0% -21.3% 67% 0% -21.3%
≤90d 12 -2.3% -11.6% 92% 0% -11.9%
all 13 -2.1% -11.4% 92% 0% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -11.8%
10% -19.9% 0% -20.2%
15% -27.6% 0% -27.9%
20% -34.7% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$237 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$376
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses12 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage98d
Avg bet$528
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $368 $376 +$8 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $607 −$237 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $607 +$1 +0%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in May? Jun 01 $600 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 8? May 09 $600 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $300 $0 +0%
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $305 +$1 +0%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $605 +$1 +0%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $581 +$23 +4%
Thunder vs. Clippers Apr 09 $575 +$6 +1%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 03 $575 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $574 +$1 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Mar 20 $545 +$29 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 14? Mar 14 $545 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $371 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $370 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $607 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $607 10d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in May? BUY No 100¢ $600 23d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $600 42d
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $305 50d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 50d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $605 56d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Warriors 96¢ $581 62d
Thunder vs. Clippers BUY Thunder 99¢ $575 69d
Hawks vs. Magic BUY Hawks 100¢ $575 77d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $574 85d
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 95¢ $545 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $545 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $375.72 · official $375.72 (match) · 28 history records