Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeaa9…1737 other 422 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,292 (-7%) realized −$3,214 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%7W / 410L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day86.7pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$485
7 days−$2,006
14 days−$3,556
30 days−$3,556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$648
other 28% −$1,415
finance 11% −$502
sports 10% −$239
tech 7% −$291
politics 7% −$366
weather 3% −$27
culture 2% −$69
economics 2% −$26
crypto 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 248 -9.2% -17.9% 2% 0% -16.7%
≤30d 417 -10.4% -18.9% 2% 0% -16.8%
≤90d 417 -10.4% -18.9% 2% 0% -16.8%
all 417 -10.4% -18.9% 2% 0% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 0% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 0% -24.7%
15% -33.8% 0% -32.0%
20% -40.3% 0% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$3,214
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses7 / 410
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions5
Markets (closed)417 / 422
History coverage13d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day86.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 417 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 52¢ 29¢ $31 $18 −$14 (-43%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and 2%? Yes 26¢ 8¢ $39 $13 −$26 (-67%)
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? No 49¢ 17¢ $31 $11 −$20 (-65%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Yes 32¢ 8¢ $14 $3 −$11 (-77%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.70 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 17 $365 −$38 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 17 $42 −$1 -4%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 17 $68 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $48 −$2 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 17 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $22 −$10 -48%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $170 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 17 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Jun 17 $156 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? Jun 17 $7 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $55 −$6 -10%
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -14%
Will Marco Rubio attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $58 −$2 -3%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 16 $9 −$3 -38%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 16 $107 −$13 -12%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Jun 16 $316 −$18 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? Jun 16 $8 $0 -3%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $102 −$6 -6%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 16 $20 −$5 -22%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $75 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $48 −$5 -11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 16 $4 $0 -4%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 16 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July Jun 16 $194 −$23 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $64 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 +16%
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026? Jun 16 $24 −$7 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 16 $90 −$6 -6%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 16 $89 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $125 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 16 $45 −$10 -22%
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 16 $63 −$3 -5%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 16 $238 −$29 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 16 $117 −$6 -5%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Jun 16 $598 −$9 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? Jun 16 $16 −$2 -10%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $134 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $23 −$3 -12%
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Jun 16 $11 −$4 -34%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 16 $40 −$6 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL No 66¢ $293 13m
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL No 68¢ $14 14m
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL No 68¢ $20 14m
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $365 15m
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? BUY No 49¢ $31 28m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $41 47m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $42 47m
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? SELL Yes 90¢ $17 1h
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? SELL Yes 91¢ $50 1h
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY Yes 92¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 61¢ $22 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 62¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 62¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $48 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $24 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $14 3h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 11¢ $11 3h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 21¢ $22 3h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 85¢ $168 4h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 86¢ $170 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? SELL No 46¢ $48 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 47¢ $50 4h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? SELL No 89¢ $155 6h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? BUY No 89¢ $156 6h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 16¢ $7 6h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $7 6h
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and SELL Yes 12¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.50 · official $47.49 (match) · 1196 history records