Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeaa9…0b6b crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$56 (-11%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%5W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day64.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -25.9% -33.0% 23% 23% -36.7%
≤30d 22 -25.9% -33.0% 23% 23% -36.7%
≤90d 22 -25.9% -33.0% 23% 23% -36.7%
all 22 -25.9% -33.0% 23% 23% -36.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.0% 23% -36.7%
10% ← realistic here -39.4% 18% -42.7%
15% -45.3% 18% -48.3%
20% -50.6% 18% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$16 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses5 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day64.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $37 −$30 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$50 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $62 −$16 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$21 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $53 +$31 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$40 +474%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $79 −$59 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records