Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EA 0xeaab…0456 crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$225 (-22%) realized −$200 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$105
14 days+$105
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$32
crypto 44% −$99
world 7% −$26
economics 1% −$9
other 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.0% -7.7% 67% 67% +10.4%
≤30d 12 +2.0% -7.7% 67% 67% +10.4%
≤90d 16 +4.7% -5.2% 69% 62% +10.9%
all 27 -16.1% -24.1% 52% 48% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 48% -17.7%
10% -31.4% 41% -25.6%
15% -38.0% 26% -32.8%
20% -44.1% 22% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$25 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$200
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage380d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Playoffs Johnny Speeds 39¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $56 +$55 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $33 +$22 +65%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs Millennium Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $73 +$40 +55%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Play Jun 27 $65 +$9 +13%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $50 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $29 +$22 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $23 +$5 +23%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $63 −$45 -71%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $50 +$18 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 05 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 05 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 05 $9 +$12 +134%
LoL: WLGaming Esports vs Team Phantasma (BO5) - HLL Playoffs Feb 28 $42 −$28 -66%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $50 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 24 $14 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12PM ET Feb 24 $108 −$108 -100%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? Feb 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Feb 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $42 −$25 -59%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Nov 09 $38 +$21 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Nov 09 $45 +$10 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $97k November 3-9? Nov 09 $50 −$38 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL HULIGANI 86¢ $111 19m
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 41¢ $31 28m
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 44¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $55 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $12 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 56m
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P SELL roamsfiest 99¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY roamsfiest 70¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 39¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs Millennium Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Millennium Esports 100¢ $113 1h
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs Millennium Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 64¢ $73 1h
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Play SELL Millennium Esports 78¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Play SELL Millennium Esports 75¢ $63 1h
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Play SELL Millennium Esports 80¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Play SELL Millennium Esports 81¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Play BUY Millennium Esports 66¢ $65 2h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest - Map 2 Winner SELL Johnny Speeds 99¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest - Map 2 Winner SELL Johnny Speeds 99¢ $63 2h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest - Map 2 Winner BUY Johnny Speeds 76¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest - Map 2 Winner BUY Johnny Speeds 76¢ $23 2h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest - Map 2 Winner BUY Johnny Speeds 76¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest - Map 2 Winner BUY Johnny Speeds 81¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $23 3h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest - Map 1 Winner SELL Johnny Speeds 21¢ $18 4h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest - Map 1 Winner BUY Johnny Speeds 70¢ $17 4h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest - Map 1 Winner BUY Johnny Speeds 70¢ $22 4h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest - Map 1 Winner BUY Johnny Speeds 70¢ $23 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 98 history records