Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:53:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EA
0xeaac…a678
sports · 151 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$138 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$148 · open +$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$146
Realized−$148
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses83 / 49
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions18
Markets (closed)132 / 151
History coverage29d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 18 History 132 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? No 92¢ 92¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 32¢ 43¢ $10 $14 +$3 (+34%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 50¢ 88¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+77%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 66¢ 88¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+32%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 38¢ 36¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 90¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+11%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 76¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+30%)
Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the first round? No 87¢ 95¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? No 70¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+14%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Up 53¢ 60¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 34¢ 12¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 22¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot Elsa Jacquemot 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics Washington Mystics 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $5 $0 +9%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 02 $5 $0 +10%
Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $0 $0 +55%
Will AC Monza win on 2026-05-29? Jun 01 $0 $0 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 01 $0 $0 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 30? Jun 01 $0 $0 +48%
Will CD Cobresal win on 2026-05-29? Jun 01 $1 $0 +7%
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $1 $0 +21%
Will IK Sirius win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
CA Boca Juniors vs. CD Universidad Católica: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
Will Ghazl El Mahalla SC win on 2026-05-29? Jun 01 $1 $0 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $199 +$51 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $4 $0 +6%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $1 +$4 +238%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: Draw at ha May 31 $5 $0 +11%
Will Sandefjord Fotball win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $6 $0 +7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $132 −$98 -74%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 +$2 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $13 +$12 +97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 May 30 $4 +$1 +12%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 30 $5 $0 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $17 −$6 -33%
Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Mathys Erhard May 30 $3 +$2 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $4 +$1 +18%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Lola Radivojevic vs Martha Matoula May 30 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 30 $5 $0 +6%
AD Ceuta FC vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 1.5 May 30 $1 +$4 +365%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $5 $0 +6%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $6 −$6 -98%
Will América FC win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $4 +$1 +24%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $3 +$2 +45%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $7 +$1 +21%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $4 +$1 +27%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire May 30 $9 +$1 +16%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 May 30 $1 $0 +24%
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $4 +$3 +73%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Rosenborg BK win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Rosenborg BK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? May 30 $2 +$3 +124%
Will Kristiansund BK win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $4 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 40% −$83
other 25% −$142
world 25% +$91
economics 5% $0
crypto 3% −$7
politics 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 13d
Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Mathys Erhard BUY Martin Krumich 58¢ $3 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana BUY Matteo Berrettini 66¢ $8 13d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Lola Radivojevic vs Martha Matoula BUY Lola Radivojevic 88¢ $0 13d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Lola Radivojevic vs Martha Matoula BUY Lola Radivojevic 88¢ $4 13d
AD Ceuta FC vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $1 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon BUY Matteo Arnaldi 50¢ $13 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana BUY Francisco Comesana 37¢ $10 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $104 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 13d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $4 13d
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: Draw at ha BUY Yes 90¢ $5 13d
Will IK Sirius win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 13d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 13d
Will Sandefjord Fotball win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 93¢ $6 13d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1 14d
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire BUY Atlanta Dream 86¢ $9 14d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $8 14d
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 14d
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 42¢ $2 14d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 14d
EC Juventude vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 14d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 94¢ $1 14d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Toronto Blue Jays 81¢ $4 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -42.9% -48.3% 33% 33% -10.7%
≤30d 132 +0.2% -9.4% 63% 51% -21.1%
≤90d 132 +0.2% -9.4% 63% 51% -21.1%
all 132 +0.2% -9.4% 63% 51% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 51% -21.1%
10% -18.0% 39% -28.7%
15% -26.0% 30% -35.6%
20% -33.2% 23% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.53 · official $145.23 (match) · 287 history records