Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:04:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeab1…00d7 politics 95 markets active 6d ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate23%22W / 73L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% −$17
economics 8% −$2
other 5% −$5
world 3% $0
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% −$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 44 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 95 -1.6% -10.9% 23% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.5% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses22 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage138d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $485 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $486 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $486 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $487 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $487 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $488 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $488 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $489 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $489 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $490 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $491 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $492 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $494 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $494 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $495 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $496 −$1 -0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 07 $496 −$1 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Apr 07 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 07 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $502 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 07 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $503 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $504 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 07 $504 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 07 $505 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 07 $505 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on Mar 09 $2 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Mar 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February Mar 09 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $10 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 6d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 6d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $5 6d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $5 6d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $5 6d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 6d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $485 53d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $485 53d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $485 53d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $486 53d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $486 53d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $486 53d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $486 53d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $487 53d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $487 53d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $487 53d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $487 53d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $488 53d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $488 53d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $488 53d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $488 53d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $489 53d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $489 53d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $489 53d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $489 53d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $490 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 203 history records