Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:30:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EA 0xeab3…c6bb other 265 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,082 (-3%) realized −$1,034 · open −$48
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%133W / 130L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$46
14 days+$89
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$312
other 37% −$661
sports 22% −$164
world 0% −$10
politics 0% +$3
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -6.6% -15.5% 58% 47% -5.5%
≤30d 49 -1.0% -10.4% 59% 51% -3.8%
≤90d 49 -1.0% -10.4% 59% 51% -3.8%
all 263 -9.7% -18.3% 51% 38% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 38% -12.8%
10% -26.1% 27% -21.1%
15% -33.3% 19% -28.7%
20% -39.8% 12% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$39 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$1,034
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses133 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)263 / 265
History coverage225d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 32¢ $71 $43 −$28 (-39%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 59¢ 18¢ $29 $9 −$21 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $170 −$3 -2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $13 +$16 +119%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$8 +39%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $24 +$6 +26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $151 +$23 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $145 +$6 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 +$45 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $28 −$27 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +48%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $79 +$63 +80%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 −$24 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $13 −$6 -52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $145 +$2 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -92%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 −$2 -23%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $16 +$5 +29%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 +$4 +35%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $9 −$3 -29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$3 -16%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $15 +$6 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 +$6 +42%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 +$3 +21%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$5 -28%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $8 +$3 +36%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $7 +$3 +40%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$8 +68%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $9 −$2 -21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $25 +$8 +30%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $9 +$2 +24%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 −$11 -73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $12 +$6 +51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $160 +$7 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $16 +$9 +60%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $107 +$18 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$14 -65%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $18 −$7 -38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 13 $20 −$13 -66%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $23 +$18 +76%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $27 −$15 -56%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 13 $15 +$10 +71%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $15 +$11 +74%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$8 -50%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $43 +$11 +26%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $61 +$22 +36%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $540 −$540 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 36m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $7 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 89¢ $167 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $170 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $34 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $13 22h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 27h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 88¢ $31 47h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $24 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $174 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $151 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $151 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $145 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $60 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $17 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $7 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $142 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $53 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 20¢ $6 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $145 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.83 · official $57.38 · 780 history records