Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:54:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EA 0xeab4…f8c6 sports 207 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-1%) realized −$81 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate80%164W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$495
14 days−$249
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$26
other 4% −$64
world 3% +$1
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -11.0% -19.5% 80% 22% -21.4%
≤30d 154 -1.1% -10.5% 84% 38% -10.3%
≤90d 206 -1.5% -10.9% 80% 41% -10.3%
all 206 -1.5% -10.9% 80% 41% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 41% -10.3%
10% -19.4% 19% -18.9%
15% -27.2% 11% -26.7%
20% -34.3% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$26 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses164 / 42
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)206 / 207
History coverage38d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 100¢ $94 $100 +$6 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $38 +$3 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $95 +$5 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $70 +$4 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $135 +$10 +7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $46 −$45 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $172 −$172 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $41 +$4 +9%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $138 +$32 +23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $144 +$9 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $36 +$1 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $14 +$1 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $44 +$3 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $16 $0 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $225 −$225 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $47 −$46 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +12%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $112 +$23 +20%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $185 +$15 +8%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $28 +$2 +8%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $45 +$7 +16%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $74 +$4 +6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $145 +$5 +3%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $55 +$3 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $44 +$9 +21%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $135 +$9 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $280 +$12 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $29 +$6 +20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $225 +$16 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $71 +$4 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $442 +$34 +8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $103 +$20 +19%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $19 +$2 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $94 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $38 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $95 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $70 27h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $135 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $2 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $3 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $2 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $6 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $0 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.00 · official $100.00 (match) · 840 history records