Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeab6…d4c6 other 174 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (572 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$21,042 (+34%) realized +$21,399 · open −$357
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate49%64W / 66L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$351per market
Trades / day571.8pace
Fees−$490est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$5,114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$1,499
sports 34% −$694
world 6% −$8
weather 3% −$367
politics 1% −$247
tech 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (572 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 +12.3% +1.6% 49% 26% -8.5%
≤30d 130 +12.3% +1.6% 49% 26% -8.5%
≤90d 130 +12.3% +1.6% 49% 26% -8.5%
all 130 +12.3% +1.6% 49% 26% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover571.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.6% 26% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -8.1% 13% -17.3%
15% -17.0% 11% -25.3%
20% -25.1% 8% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$501) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$61 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$5,114
Realized+$21,399
Unrealized−$357
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses64 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$490
Open positions114
Markets (closed)130 / 174
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$351
Trades / day571.8
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 114 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? No 68¢ 100¢ $242 $356 +$114 (+47%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-10 House seat? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $298 $299 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? No 91¢ 100¢ $249 $274 +$25 (+10%)
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? No 85¢ 94¢ $249 $274 +$25 (+10%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? No 55¢ 46¢ $304 $258 −$47 (-15%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 26¢ 25¢ $259 $244 −$14 (-6%)
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Mandatory 50¢ 50¢ $248 $244 −$5 (-2%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? No 90¢ 90¢ $205 $207 +$2 (+1%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 37¢ $39 $206 +$168 (+433%)
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 53¢ 64¢ $159 $192 +$32 (+20%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15-20%? No 90¢ 100¢ $160 $178 +$18 (+11%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? No 81¢ 100¢ $131 $162 +$31 (+23%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $144 $150 +$6 (+4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 46¢ 46¢ $151 $149 −$2 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 74¢ 74¢ $145 $146 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 41¢ 38¢ $146 $133 −$13 (-9%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? No 18¢ 12¢ $170 $119 −$50 (-30%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Curaçao 33¢ 32¢ $97 $95 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 28¢ 29¢ $84 $87 +$3 (+3%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 65¢ 76¢ $74 $87 +$13 (+18%)
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 81¢ 88¢ $79 $85 +$6 (+8%)
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? No 53¢ 36¢ $118 $82 −$36 (-31%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $27 $75 +$49 (+183%)
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 4¢ 11¢ $26 $74 +$48 (+187%)
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $46 $71 +$25 (+54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $263 +$9 +3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $357 +$116 +32%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1 +$25 +4900%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $245 +$33 +14%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $177 +$36 +20%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $342 −$88 -26%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $244 −$25 -10%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $504 +$80 +16%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $573 −$32 -6%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $144 −$116 -81%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $247 −$238 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $35 −$20 -57%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 19 $127 −$88 -69%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $464 +$189 +41%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $251 +$35 +14%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $277 +$5 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 18? Jun 19 $39 −$30 -76%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 19 $84 −$45 -54%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 18? Jun 19 $60 −$56 -93%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 19 $85 −$69 -82%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,353 +$166 +12%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $518 −$430 -83%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,476 +$28 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,634 +$90 +6%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,403 +$14 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $689 +$11 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $491 +$6 +1%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $724 −$14 -2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $847 +$21 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $499 +$8 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $566 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,386 +$66 +5%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $304 −$11 -4%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $150 −$4 -2%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $451 −$21 -5%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 19 $458 −$13 -3%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $501 −$4 -1%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $46 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $802 +$3 +0%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $334 +$84 +25%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $554 +$119 +21%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $1,135 −$82 -7%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 18 $200 +$42 +21%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 17 $539 −$129 -24%
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais Jun 17 $46 +$9 +20%
ITF Ystad: Gergana Topalova vs Loes Ebeling Koning Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
ITF Klosters: Kailey Evans vs Laura Mair Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
ITF Klosters: Dune Vaissaud vs Josephine Kunz Jun 17 $10 −$6 -66%
ITF Ystad: Valentina Steiner vs Eva Bennemann Jun 17 $250 +$166 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? SELL No 93¢ $46 2m
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 45¢ $20 2m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL No 72¢ $12 2m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 2m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 2m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 2m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 2m
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 49¢ $72 3m
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 49¢ $28 3m
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 48¢ $5 3m
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 48¢ $3 3m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3m
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 49¢ $23 3m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 67¢ $4 3m
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 50¢ $5 3m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 3m
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 50¢ $2 3m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 69¢ $6 3m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL No 72¢ $7 3m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 4m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 4m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 33¢ $99 4m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 69¢ $7 4m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 4m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 4m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 30¢ $19 4m
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL No 81¢ $178 5m
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 54¢ $11 5m
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 54¢ $2 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,114.40 · official $5,102.59 (match) · 3500 history records