Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

EA 0xeab6…9ba7 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$571 (+47%) realized +$408 · open +$163

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +140% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +117% what you keep after slip

Net edge+117%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$244per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$1,063now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+116.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	+139.7%	+116.8%	100%	100%	+116.8%
≤90d	1	+139.7%	+116.8%	100%	100%	+116.8%
all	1	+139.7%	+116.8%	100%	100%	+116.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+116.8%	100%	+116.8%
10%	+96.1%	100%	+96.1%
15%	+77.1%	100%	+77.1%
20%	+59.8%	100%	+59.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +140% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +140% · $-wt +140% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$426 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$1,063

Realized+$408

Unrealized+$163

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions4

Markets (closed)1 / 5

History coverage7d

Avg bet$244

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	20¢	$300	$460	+$160 (+53%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	62¢	64¢	$200	$205	+$5 (+2%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	44¢	44¢	$200	$199	−$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 22	$305	+$426	+140%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	44¢	$203	1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	62¢	$202	1h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	62¢	$202	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$308	7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	41¢	$305	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,062.64 · official $1,062.64 (match) · 14 history records