Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:12:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
EA 0xeab7…ad23 sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$168 (-1%) realized −$168 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate72%28W / 11L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,126
7 days+$1,126
14 days+$1,107
30 days+$1,078
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$3,204
sports 46% −$3,684
economics 0% −$3
other 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +68.3% +52.3% 62% 50% +16.9%
≤30d 13 +47.1% +33.1% 62% 54% -0.4%
≤90d 14 +43.8% +30.1% 64% 50% -0.6%
all 39 +20.7% +9.2% 72% 49% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.2% 49% -12.8%
10% -1.3% 44% -21.1%
15% -10.8% 36% -28.7%
20% -19.5% 31% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$416 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses28 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage245d
Avg bet$347
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$146 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$91 +88%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $253 +$210 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $110 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $94 +$492 +526%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? Jun 24 $3,161 +$322 +10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $398 −$398 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $507 +$379 +75%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $33 +$36 +109%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $3,280 +$2,278 +70%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $2,667 −$2,343 -88%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $164 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 02 $158 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Feb 28 $154 +$3 +2%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Feb 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers Feb 02 $14 −$6 -47%
Nuggets vs. Heat Dec 30 $1,779 −$1,670 -94%
Clippers vs. Rockets Dec 12 $84 +$41 +49%
Heat vs. Magic Dec 12 $43 +$40 +92%
Nuggets vs. Rockets Nov 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Kings vs. Thunder Nov 21 $5 $0 +6%
Wizards vs. Timberwolves Nov 21 $5 $0 +9%
Nuggets vs. Pelicans Nov 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Rockets vs. Cavaliers Nov 21 $5 +$4 +89%
Clippers vs. 76ers Nov 18 $41 +$2 +5%
Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks Nov 17 $70 +$6 +9%
Magic vs. Rockets Nov 17 $41 +$14 +34%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 17 $24 −$3 -13%
Pelicans vs. Nuggets Oct 30 $23 $0 +0%
Rockets vs. Raptors Oct 30 $5 +$2 +45%
Cavaliers vs. Celtics Oct 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Kings vs. Thunder Oct 29 $5 +$1 +22%
76ers vs. Wizards Oct 29 $5 +$3 +59%
Thunder vs. Mavericks Oct 28 $5 +$2 +32%
Raptors vs. Spurs Oct 28 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? Oct 27 $5 +$4 +89%
Thunder vs. Pacers Oct 24 $10 +$4 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $253 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $255 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down $27 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $67 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 45¢ $180 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 45¢ $416 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 45¢ $2,700 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 45¢ $180 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,054 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records