Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EA 0xeab7…b389 sports 2240 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3498 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$6,068 (+5735%) realized +$4,273 · open +$1,795
Gross ROI / mkt +972% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +725% what you keep after slip
Net edge+725%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%26W / 27L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$0per market
Trades / day3498.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,871now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% +$61
crypto 26% +$609
other 25% +$1,127
weather 16% +$4
tech 1% +$2
finance 1% $0
culture 1% +$2
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3498 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+869.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +971.5% +869.5% 49% 49% +99.2%
≤30d 53 +971.5% +869.5% 49% 49% +99.2%
≤90d 53 +971.5% +869.5% 49% 49% +99.2%
all 53 +971.5% +869.5% 49% 49% +99.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3498.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +869.5% 49% +99.2%
10% ← realistic here +776.7% 49% +80.1%
15% +692.0% 49% +62.7%
20% +614.4% 49% +46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5382% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +972% · $-wt +5382% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late +1851% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×166.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×287.91 per $1 lost it wins $287.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,871
Realized+$4,273
Unrealized+$1,795
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses26 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions475
Markets (closed)53 / 2240
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$0
Trades / day3498.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 475 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 85¢ $0 $42 +$42 (+84650%)
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on IPO day? Yes 67¢ $0 $33 +$33 (+66550%)
Almeida/Escurra vs. Britez/Nunez: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+50000%)
Bitcoin above 66,200 on June 16, 7PM ET? Yes 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49900%)
Almeida/Escurra vs. Britez/Nunez: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Over 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49900%)
First Blood in Game 1? Invictus Gaming 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49900%)
Game Handicap: Aterion Esports (-1.5) vs The World (+1.5) Aterion Esports 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49900%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Odd 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49900%)
Counter-Strike: Nerve of Cow vs BRAWLSTARS (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season Nerve of Cow 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49900%)
Ethereum above 1,860 on June 16, 8PM ET? Yes 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49850%)
Ethereum above 1,870 on June 16, 8PM ET? Yes 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49850%)
Ethereum above 1,860 on June 17, 12AM ET? Yes 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49850%)
Almeida/Escurra vs. Britez/Nunez: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Over 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49850%)
Bitcoin above 67,400 on June 16, 7PM ET? Yes 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49850%)
Set 1 Winner: Fick/McGiffin vs Daniel/Thombare Daniel/Thombare 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49850%)
Ethereum above 1,720 on June 16, 8PM ET? No 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49850%)
Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 2? Over 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49850%)
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 16, 7PM ET? Yes 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49850%)
Ethereum above 1,840 on June 17, 12AM ET? Yes 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49850%)
Ethereum above 1,850 on June 16, 8PM ET? Yes 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49850%)
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 16, 7PM ET? No 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49850%)
Bitcoin above 67,800 on June 17, 12AM ET? Yes 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49850%)
Ethereum above 1,870 on June 17, 12AM ET? Yes 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49850%)
Bitcoin above 66,400 on June 16, 7PM ET? Yes 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49850%)
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 16, 7PM ET? No 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+49850%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ratti vs. Hemery: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $0 +$10 +49900%
Visker vs. Mmoh: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $0 +$5 +50010%
Bitcoin above 79,600 on May 3, 10PM ET? Jun 17 $0 +$4 +100222%
SC União Torreense vs. AD Fafe: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $0 +$3 +100503%
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Jun 17 $0 +$3 +49982%
Bennani vs. Jubb: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $0 +$3 +49900%
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $0 +$3 +99900%
HYPE Up or Down on May 19? Jun 17 $0 +$3 +100281%
First Blood in Game 2? Jun 17 $0 +$5 +202496%
Visker vs. Mmoh: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $0 +$2 +49900%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +101200%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +101032%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 32°C on May 6? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +104181%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs D family - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$2 +49945%
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +103105%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 17 $0 +$1 +99964%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Samsung Lions Jun 17 $0 +$1 +51657%
Spread: Coritiba FBC (-2.5) Jun 17 $0 +$1 +99980%
Total Kills Over/Under 52.5 in Game 1? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +99980%
South Alabama Jaguars vs. Marshall Thundering Herd Jun 17 $0 +$1 +102111%
Will "Anthropic" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast Jun 17 $0 +$1 +117680%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 +119875%
Spread: Albirex Niigata (-1.5) Jun 17 $0 +$3 +956500%
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 +99900%
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Jun 17 $0 $0 +187800%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -4%
Christoph Baumgartner: 1+ goals Jun 17 $0 $0 -12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $0 $0 -85%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $0 $0 -11%
Will Trent Holbrook be the Democratic nominee for DC Delegate? Jun 17 $0 $0 -4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: Tied after 5 innings? Jun 17 $0 $0 -73%
Pittsburgh Pirates winning after 5 innings? Jun 17 $0 $0 -73%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $0 $0 -62%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $0 $0 -42%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Fortaleza EC to score first vs. América FC? Jun 17 $0 $0 -3%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds winning after 5 innings? Jun 17 $0 $0 -45%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 16 $0 $0 -87%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $0 +$11 +99900%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
France to win the second half? Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Michael Olise: 2+ goals Jun 16 $0 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up $0 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up $0 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up $0 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up $0 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up $0 0m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up $0 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up $0 1m
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 18? BUY No $0 2m
Will Tunisia be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group S BUY Yes $0 2m
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 18? BUY No $0 2m
ITF Haskovo: Selena Janicijevic vs Yoana Konstantinova BUY Yoana Konstantinova $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June BUY Yes $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June BUY Yes $0 5m
Bitcoin above 66,200 on June 16, 7PM ET? BUY Yes $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June BUY Yes $0 7m
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? BUY Over $0 9m
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? BUY Over $0 9m
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? BUY Over $0 9m
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? BUY Over $0 9m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun BUY Yes $0 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Lekomtseva vs. Aksu: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over $0 10m
Lekomtseva vs. Aksu: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over $0 10m
Lekomtseva vs. Aksu: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over $0 10m
Lekomtseva vs. Aksu: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up $0 10m
Romano Schmid: 3+ shots BUY Yes $0 10m
Romano Schmid: 5+ shots BUY Yes $0 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,871.30 · official $1,928.10 · 3500 history records