Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:20:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EA 0xeab8…8ecf other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$296 (+16%) realized +$358 · open −$62
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% +$93
other 20% +$142
sports 8% +$9
crypto 1% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +9.9% -0.5% 60% 60% +8.3%
≤30d 15 +9.9% -0.5% 60% 60% +8.3%
≤90d 15 +9.9% -0.5% 60% 60% +8.3%
all 15 +9.9% -0.5% 60% 60% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 60% +8.3%
10% -10.0% 53% -2.1%
15% -18.7% 53% -11.5%
20% -26.7% 47% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$16 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.2 per $1 lost it wins $4.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$358
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)15 / 23
History coverage6d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Colombia 75¢ 98¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+31%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $50 $22 −$28 (-56%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$17 +83%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $152 +$110 +72%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $1,106 +$161 +15%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $57 −$55 -97%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $18 +$13 +73%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Colombia 75¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $51 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $51 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 26h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $20 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $41 3d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $52 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 100¢ $101 4d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $18 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $7 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $1,106 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.58 · official $197.58 (match) · 41 history records