Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeabb…1dce crypto 691 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$242 (-8%) realized −$239 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%336W / 325L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$4
30 days−$321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$138
crypto 36% −$133
other 7% $0
culture 7% −$18
world 6% −$22
politics 2% −$4
economics 0% +$1
finance 0% −$2
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -1.5% -10.8% 47% 39% -8.7%
≤30d 553 -5.8% -14.8% 48% 41% -19.2%
≤90d 661 -4.5% -13.6% 51% 44% -17.7%
all 661 -4.5% -13.6% 51% 44% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 44% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 38% -25.5%
15% -29.4% 30% -32.7%
20% -36.3% 22% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$239
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses336 / 325
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions30
Markets (closed)661 / 691
History coverage41d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 661 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 21¢ 30¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-23%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Cabo Verde 84¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 81¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? No 72¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? No 72¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 49¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 48¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+87%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? No 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 18¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 60¢ 28¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-53%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-74%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 171 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $4 +$1 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +93%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $3 $0 -5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 −$1 -29%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $4 +$1 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +21%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$1 -59%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -90%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$1 -52%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 +$1 +36%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $4 +$1 +27%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -76%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$1 -43%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $6 −$1 -20%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 +$1 +27%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $3 +$2 +62%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +53%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3 −$1 -41%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$1 -35%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -55%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -55%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$1 -71%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3 −$1 -35%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +128%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -84%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 -8%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $2 +$3 +139%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$8 +157%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 $0 -2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$2 -33%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -22%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +84%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$1 -24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$2 -63%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 1m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 2m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $3 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 54¢ $3 6h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 100¢ $5 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 6h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) SELL Detroit Tigers 88¢ $4 6h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 20¢ $1 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 4¢ $0 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $1 6h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) SELL Cleveland Guardians 100¢ $5 6h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 73¢ $4 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $4 7h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 68¢ $3 7h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 74¢ $4 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 48¢ $3 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $3 7h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL No 14¢ $1 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $2 8h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 48¢ $2 8h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) SELL Houston Astros 22¢ $1 8h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) SELL Atlanta Braves 26¢ $1 8h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 78¢ $4 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 8h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 79¢ $4 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 8h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 85¢ $4 9h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) SELL New York Yankees 95¢ $5 9h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 86¢ $4 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.72 · official $61.15 (match) · 1537 history records