Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:21:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeabb…5b6a world 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate29%16W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$5
other 18% −$2
politics 7% $0
sports 6% $0
culture 3% +$2
finance 3% $0
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.2% -8.4% 33% 11% -9.8%
≤30d 23 +0.0% -9.5% 30% 4% -10.2%
≤90d 23 +0.0% -9.5% 30% 4% -10.2%
all 55 +1.3% -8.3% 29% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 5% -9.9%
10% -17.1% 2% -18.5%
15% -25.1% 2% -26.4%
20% -32.5% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses16 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage274d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 84¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $2 $0 +19%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $9 $0 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $10 $0 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $19 −$1 -4%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $85 −$4 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $121 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $8 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $39 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $127 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $61 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $34 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $40 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $42 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Oct 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $18 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 04 $20 $0 -2%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $2 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? Sep 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $2 $0 +18%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $43 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 29 $22 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 28 $21 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 28 $3 +$2 +78%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 26 $21 $0 -1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $5 $0 -3%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $40 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 32h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $27 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $10 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $29 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $8 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $18 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 10¢ $7 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 10¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $29 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $37 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $6 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.56 · official $40.56 (match) · 194 history records