Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:15:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeac0…6723 crypto 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$141 (+26%) realized +$143 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$276
7 days+$261
14 days+$131
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$44
sports 29% −$62
crypto 25% +$236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +7.1% -3.1% 21% 21% +118.0%
≤30d 32 -24.5% -31.6% 25% 25% +18.1%
≤90d 32 -24.5% -31.6% 25% 25% +18.1%
all 32 -24.5% -31.6% 25% 25% +18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 25% +18.1%
10% -38.2% 25% +6.8%
15% -44.2% 25% -3.5%
20% -49.6% 19% -13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$11 · ×4.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$143
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage12d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 4¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $37 +$275 +750%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $44 +$56 +129%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +113%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $311 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 21h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 45¢ $24 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score AND Will IR Iran win on 2026- BUY 8¢ $15 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026 BUY 34¢ $51 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 3d
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $4 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 BUY Over 13¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 7d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $10 7d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.12 · official $11.88 · 52 history records