Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:28:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeac1…4e70 other 262 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%14W / 248L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$43
sports 23% −$19
economics 8% −$6
culture 7% −$7
politics 7% −$6
world 5% −$4
crypto 4% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 262 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses14 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)262 / 262
History coverage137d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 262 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $383 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $508 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $995 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $446 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $196 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $244 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $245 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $616 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $167 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $194 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $309 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $603 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $509 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $209 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $246 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $139 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $145 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $278 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $211 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $598 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $249 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $228 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $368 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $68 $0 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $163 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $252 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $356 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $234 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $644 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 05 $189 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $412 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $140 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 3m
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 1h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 2h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 6h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 8h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 9h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 14h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $62 22h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 24h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 33h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 35h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 37h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 39h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 43h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 45h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 47h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 3d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 3d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1403 history records