Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EA 0xeac6…4ac7 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized −$14 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$26
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$121
sports 35% −$35
politics 20% −$71
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -12.6% -20.9% 33% 33% +5.7%
≤30d 14 -4.5% -13.6% 43% 36% -9.9%
≤90d 14 -4.5% -13.6% 43% 36% -9.9%
all 14 -4.5% -13.6% 43% 36% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 36% -9.9%
10% -21.9% 36% -18.5%
15% -29.4% 36% -26.4%
20% -36.3% 29% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$21 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage14d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 70¢ 81¢ $120 $140 +$20 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $20 −$16 -77%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $81 +$57 +70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $51 −$16 -31%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $31 +$41 +134%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $46 −$33 -73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +152%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $25 −$2 -8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$29 +41%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $20 +$21 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $130 −$71 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 70¢ $121 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 12¢ $5 20h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 50¢ $20 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $81 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 44¢ $35 6d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $51 6d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 42¢ $31 9d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 60¢ $30 9d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 38¢ $15 10d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 38¢ $15 10d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Team Heretics 37¢ $11 10d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $15 10d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 49¢ $23 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 10d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $25 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 11d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $42 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 48¢ $20 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $59 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 14¢ $130 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.70 · official $139.71 (match) · 28 history records