Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:58:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

EA 0xeacb…4d00 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$30 (+7%) realized +$34 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR65%break-even

Win rate76%13W / 4L

Drawdown47%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit61%portable

Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$34

7 days+$55

14 days+$55

30 days+$55

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +65%

net ROI/market (all)-8.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+11.7%	+1.1%	83%	67%	+3.9%
≤30d	12	+11.7%	+1.1%	83%	67%	+3.9%
≤90d	14	+6.0%	-4.1%	79%	64%	+1.4%
all	17	+1.1%	-8.5%	76%	65%	-0.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.5%	65%	-0.4%
10%	-17.3%	35%	-10.0%
15%	-25.3%	24%	-18.7%
20%	-32.6%	12%	-26.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 37% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

15% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +14% → late -11% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage

Net worth$9

Realized+$34

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)76%

Wins / losses13 / 4

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage96d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown47%

Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	7¢	$13	$9	−$4 (-31%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$98	+$3	+3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$90	+$8	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Jun 20	$2	−$2	-100%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)	Jun 20	$75	+$17	+23%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$60	+$7	+12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$7	+$1	+12%
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$2	$0	+14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$11	+$3	+32%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$8	+$4	+44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	+$8	+82%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$7	+$8	+110%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 08	$16	+$7	+43%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Apr 20	$14	−$14	-100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-22?	Mar 22	$10	+$2	+18%
Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?	Mar 22	$9	−$9	-100%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?	Mar 22	$10	+$2	+18%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	97¢	$98	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	92¢	$90	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$2	19h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)	BUY Türkiye	81¢	$75	27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$7	32h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY	89¢	$60	32h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Jordan	89¢	$2	4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	87¢	$2	4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$13	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	81¢	$10	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	45¢	$1	4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	69¢	$8	5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	100¢	$18	5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$15	5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	54¢	$10	5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	47¢	$7	5d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY No	70¢	$16	70d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	10¢	$14	89d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$12	90d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-22?	BUY Yes	85¢	$10	90d
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?	BUY Yes	85¢	$10	96d
Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?	BUY Yes	86¢	$9	96d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.95 · official $8.95 (match) · 38 history records