Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EA 0xeacf…a2a4 crypto 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$22 (+4%) realized +$25 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%31W / 19L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day49.3pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$27
other 19% +$7
world 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -2.8% -12.1% 62% 50% -2.4%
≤30d 50 -2.8% -12.1% 62% 50% -2.4%
≤90d 50 -2.8% -12.1% 62% 50% -2.4%
all 50 -2.8% -12.1% 62% 50% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 50% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 36% -11.7%
15% -28.2% 28% -20.2%
20% -35.2% 18% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses31 / 19
Open positions7
Markets (closed)50 / 57
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day49.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $76 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$12 +225%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$12 +225%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$17 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.50 · official $66.50 (match) · 101 history records