Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xead2…61b1 other 248 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 233L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$21
14 days−$27
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$40
sports 21% −$18
politics 8% −$8
crypto 7% −$7
culture 7% −$8
economics 4% −$1
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$3
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)248 / 248
History coverage131d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 248 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $138 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $753 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $227 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $520 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $585 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $592 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $210 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,145 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $175 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $239 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $139 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $414 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $704 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $346 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $68 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $322 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $607 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $65 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $401 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $276 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $370 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 31 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $377 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $408 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $231 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 27 $155 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 1h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 3h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 7h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 9h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 13h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 14h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 16h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 18h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $64 19h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $64 21h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 26h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 28h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $64 31h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $64 33h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 35h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 37h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 37h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 39h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 41h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 42h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $65 43h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $65 44h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $65 46h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $65 47h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $65 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $65 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $65 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1358 history records