Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EA 0xead3…8ed3 other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$957 (-50%) realized −$957 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$203
sports 43% −$812
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -21.0% -28.5% 17% 17% -57.4%
≤30d 6 -21.0% -28.5% 17% 17% -57.4%
≤90d 6 -21.0% -28.5% 17% 17% -57.4%
all 6 -21.0% -28.5% 17% 17% -57.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 17% -57.4%
10% -35.4% 17% -61.5%
15% -41.6% 17% -65.2%
20% -47.3% 17% -68.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$206 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$957
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$29 -95%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 +$18 +145%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$2 -16%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $751 −$23 -3%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $826 −$812 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $280 −$166 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 7m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $30 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $13 21h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $15 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 21h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $15 21h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $712 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $713 21h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $114 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $114 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $12 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $17 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $42 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $147 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $519 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $280 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records