Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:00:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

EA 0xead9…0bc5 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$990 (+41%) realized +$990 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip

Net edge+26%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate47%9W / 10L

Drawdown31%max

Avg bet$128per market

Trades / day2.5pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit74%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$11

7 days−$149

14 days+$971

30 days+$971

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)+25.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+1.1%	-8.5%	31%	31%	-29.3%
≤30d	19	+39.1%	+25.8%	47%	47%	+26.5%
≤90d	19	+39.1%	+25.8%	47%	47%	+26.5%
all	19	+39.1%	+25.8%	47%	47%	+26.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+25.8%	47%	+26.5%
10%	+13.8%	47%	+14.4%
15%	+2.8%	47%	+3.4%
20%	-7.3%	42%	-6.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 66% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +39% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +48% → late +31% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$168 vs −$54 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$990

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses9 / 10

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 19

History coverage13d

Avg bet$128

Trades / day2.5

Drawdown31%

Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 22	$20	+$26	+128%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$21	−$20	-98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$26	+$57	+223%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$31	−$30	-98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$31	+$147	+477%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$26	−$25	-97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$121	+$105	+87%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 15	$30	−$30	-100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$51	−$51	-100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Jun 15	$242	−$242	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$51	+$261	+509%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$1,319	+$731	+55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$137	+$49	+36%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins	Jun 11	$45	+$41	+90%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$101	−$56	-55%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Jun 10	$101	+$95	+93%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$46	1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	43¢	$20	2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	10¢	$15	2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$51	3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$21	5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$82	5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$26	6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	26¢	$31	6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$177	6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$31	6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	4¢	$26	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Justin Gaethje	99¢	$226	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	75¢	$101	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	21¢	$20	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	53¢	$51	6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$312	7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	5¢	$21	7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$51	7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,050	7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$758	8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$560	8d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	65¢	$30	8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$104	8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$51	9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	47¢	$82	9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$86	9d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins	BUY Miami Marlins	52¢	$45	10d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Knicks	25¢	$45	10d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY Los Angeles Dodgers	66¢	$191	11d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY Los Angeles Dodgers	66¢	$51	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records