Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:58:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xead9…27d2 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$218 (-11%) realized −$230 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate41%16W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$452now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$180
7 days−$180
14 days−$180
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$328
sports 16% +$128
politics 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -45.7% -50.9% 22% 22% -39.6%
≤30d 9 -45.7% -50.9% 22% 22% -39.6%
≤90d 9 -45.7% -50.9% 22% 22% -39.6%
all 39 -34.1% -40.4% 41% 23% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.4% 23% -23.9%
10% -46.1% 21% -31.2%
15% -51.3% 13% -37.8%
20% -56.1% 10% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$24 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$452
Realized−$230
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses16 / 23
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage113d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $140 $142 +$2 (+2%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Cabo Verde 83¢ 86¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? No 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$23 +226%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $202 +$126 +62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $325 −$320 -98%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Mar 17 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 16 $3 −$3 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 14 $10 +$10 +106%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 14 $6 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 14 $6 −$4 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $202 +$16 +8%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $12 −$10 -83%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $55 +$5 +9%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 3 to Marc Mar 11 $41 −$19 -47%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 3 to Marc Mar 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $26 +$9 +35%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $136 +$15 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $9 +$2 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $22 +$2 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 10 $64 −$61 -96%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 3 to Marc Mar 10 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 09 $8 −$3 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 09 $19 +$7 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 07 $6 −$1 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $20 $0 +2%
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $55 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $127 +$90 +71%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $9 +$2 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 05 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $20 1h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 83¢ $50 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 8h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 8h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $202 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $325 22h
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March SELL Yes 2¢ $0 101d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 102d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March BUY Yes 7¢ $1 102d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 103d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 104d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 104d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 104d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 104d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 104d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 104d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 105d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 105d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 105d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $92 105d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 105d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $10 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $451.77 · official $451.77 (match) · 179 history records