Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:15:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeade…0823 world 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate33%26W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$6
other 23% −$1
politics 9% −$11
sports 6% −$1
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.0% 50% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 24 -2.1% -11.4% 54% 4% -8.9%
≤90d 60 -1.6% -11.0% 33% 3% -9.4%
all 78 -2.0% -11.3% 33% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 6% -9.7%
10% -19.8% 6% -18.4%
15% -27.5% 3% -26.3%
20% -34.6% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses26 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 80
History coverage532d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 42¢ 38¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $72 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $82 −$3 -4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $33 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $8 $0 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $105 −$2 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $69 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $218 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $145 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $95 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $146 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $120 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $35 +$12 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $38 +$2 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $27 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $32 −$5 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $11 $0 -3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 20 $67 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $69 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $40 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $68 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $68 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 08 $65 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 31 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $36 23m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $36 25h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $33 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $29 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $24 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $24 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $32 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $33 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $4 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $29 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 75¢ $33 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $14 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $19 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 87¢ $8 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 84¢ $8 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $37 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $7 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $12 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $13 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $33 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.20 · official $0.00 · 289 history records