Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:37:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

EA 0xeae2…65b6 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$38 (+8%) realized +$51 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%6W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day1.8pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit21%portable

Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$7

7 days−$6

14 days+$44

30 days+$44

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-18.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	-27.7%	-34.6%	33%	33%	-11.7%
≤30d	14	-10.3%	-18.9%	43%	43%	+2.5%
≤90d	14	-10.3%	-18.9%	43%	43%	+2.5%
all	14	-10.3%	-18.9%	43%	43%	+2.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.9%	43%	+2.5%
10%	-26.6%	43%	-7.3%
15%	-33.7%	36%	-16.3%
20%	-40.2%	29%	-24.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 54% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +5% → late -26% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$29 vs −$16 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.34 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$122

Realized+$51

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses6 / 8

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)14 / 19

History coverage14d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day1.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	7¢	$50	$34	−$16 (-32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	5¢	$20	$27	+$7 (+36%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	43¢	40¢	$25	$24	−$1 (-6%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	72¢	68¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-5%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$20	$18	−$2 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 22	$11	−$11	-100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$11	−$11	-100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$60	+$25	+42%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Jun 20	$11	−$11	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$21	+$59	+276%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 19	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 19	$43	−$43	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$21	+$12	+56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$27	+$26	+93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$21	+$33	+155%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$52	+$17	+32%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$26	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$60	14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$5	20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	44h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$21	2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$21	3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$11	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$21	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$53	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$27	4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	24¢	$21	9d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	24¢	$21	10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$21	10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$69	11d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	72¢	$21	11d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$21	11d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$21	13d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	37¢	$21	13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$52	13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$53	13d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.77 · official $121.77 (match) · 49 history records