Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:24:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeae2…df50 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$29 (-4%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -24.5% -31.7% 48% 39% -24.9%
≤30d 23 -24.5% -31.7% 48% 39% -24.9%
≤90d 23 -24.5% -31.7% 48% 39% -24.9%
all 23 -24.5% -31.7% 48% 39% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.7% 39% -24.9%
10% ← realistic here -38.2% 26% -32.1%
15% -44.2% 22% -38.6%
20% -49.7% 17% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$25 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$33 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$19 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$13 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$16 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$8 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records