Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:12:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeae4…1dae other 25 markets active 5d ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,403 (-37%) realized −$2,403 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$68
14 days−$2,464
30 days−$2,450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$1,435
sports 31% −$515
world 8% −$500
economics 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-46.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -13.7% -21.9% 50% 50% -1.8%
≤30d 22 -46.5% -51.6% 32% 23% -44.4%
≤90d 22 -46.5% -51.6% 32% 23% -44.4%
all 24 -40.8% -46.5% 38% 25% -43.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.5% 25% -43.9%
10% -51.6% 25% -49.3%
15% -56.3% 21% -54.2%
20% -60.5% 12% -58.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$223 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,403
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage209d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $507 +$368 +73%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $503 −$500 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$94 -92%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,012 +$155 +8%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $609 −$600 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $202 +$70 +35%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$243 +238%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-02? Jun 07 $21 +$14 +67%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 09 $73 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 42¢ $305 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 93¢ $876 5d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $507 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $203 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 7d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $8 8d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 8d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 8d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $202 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $2,167 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $2,012 8d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $52 9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 9d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Cabo Verde 90¢ $272 9d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 66¢ $202 9d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 10d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 10d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 100¢ $100 11d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 12d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 12d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 13d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 50¢ $101 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 241 history records