Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeae5…4d0d other 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$157 (+8%) realized +$157 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%60W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$122
other 46% −$4
world 2% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +15.7% +4.6% 50% 50% +24.0%
≤30d 8 +15.7% +4.6% 50% 50% +24.0%
≤90d 100 -28.9% -35.7% 31% 31% -21.4%
all 135 -5.2% -14.2% 44% 44% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 44% -2.5%
10% -22.4% 44% -11.8%
15% -29.9% 43% -20.4%
20% -36.8% 39% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses60 / 75
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)135 / 138
History coverage139d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 135 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) Jun 26 $5 +$4 +76%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $35 +$29 +82%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$17 +170%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $11 +$10 +90%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $12 −$12 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $10 +$10 +101%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) Apr 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-23? Apr 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $7 +$5 +82%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $7 +$13 +186%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 +$8 +165%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 23 $10 +$11 +119%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $5 +$15 +307%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 19 $10 +$10 +106%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-16? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-16? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5) Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-16? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $5 +$11 +213%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) Apr 17 $11 +$8 +73%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5 Apr 17 $12 +$7 +59%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $10 +$17 +165%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 13 $20 $0 -2%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $46 +$67 +145%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $11 +$11 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) SELL Senegal 100¢ $9 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Spain win o BUY 10¢ $5 1h
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) BUY Senegal 56¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $65 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $35 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-25? A BUY 9¢ $5 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 26h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Se BUY 21¢ $9 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $28 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $10 4d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 38¢ $10 6d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $30 6d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $10 6d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $175 41d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 41d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 55d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 55d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 55d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 55d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 59d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 60d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 60d
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) BUY FC Internazionale Milano 45¢ $9 61d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 61d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 62d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 62d
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-04-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 62d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $7 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $4.86 · 276 history records