Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:06:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EA 0xeaec…32a1 sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,692 (+46%) realized +$1,718 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%6W / 17L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$1,969now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$1,982
other 43% −$316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +27.2% +15.1% 26% 26% +91.6%
≤30d 23 +27.2% +15.1% 26% 26% +91.6%
≤90d 23 +27.2% +15.1% 26% 26% +91.6%
all 23 +27.2% +15.1% 26% 26% +91.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.1% 26% +91.6%
10% +4.1% 26% +73.3%
15% -6.0% 26% +56.6%
20% -15.2% 22% +41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +111% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +111% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +73% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$392 vs −$39 · ×10.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.56 per $1 lost it wins $3.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,969
Realized+$1,718
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses6 / 17
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions25
Markets (closed)23 / 48
History coverage5d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $293 $290 −$2 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $246 $242 −$4 (-1%)
United States leading at halftime? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $218 $214 −$5 (-2%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $188 $189 +$1 (+0%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 36¢ 36¢ $130 $128 −$2 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $107 $107 +$1 (+0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $107 $106 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil leading at halftime? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $84 $85 +$1 (+1%)
Australia leading at halftime? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $88 $84 −$4 (-5%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $71 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 52¢ $62 $62 −$1 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 44¢ $55 $53 −$2 (-3%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $50 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $49 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$2 (-4%)
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$2 (-9%)
Scotland leading at halftime? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 40¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Haiti leading at halftime? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+19%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $58 +$61 +105%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $133 +$66 +50%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $112 −$12 -11%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $54 −$18 -33%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $69 −$30 -43%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $49 −$48 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $418 +$1,982 +474%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $197 −$192 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$93 +1396%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $103 +$97 +93%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $46 +$54 +119%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 30m
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $55 30m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $44 31m
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $64 31m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $62 32m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $44 32m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $23 32m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $74 32m
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 1h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $55 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $62 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $23 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $74 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $50 1h
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $56 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $72 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 1h
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 6h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $56 6h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $63 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $63 6h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $44 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $74 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 8h
Haiti leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 8h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 70¢ $85 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $66 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,969.26 · official $1,969.27 (match) · 91 history records