Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:39:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeaf0…1179 other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 726d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,530 (+8%) realized +$3,548 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%24W / 41L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$669per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$54
14 days−$6,331
30 days−$6,868
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$60
other 13% +$731
crypto 13% +$2,241
sports 10% +$738
tech 0% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -34.3% -40.6% 33% 33% -75.7%
≤30d 15 -74.7% -77.1% 13% 13% -95.8%
≤90d 15 -74.7% -77.1% 13% 13% -95.8%
all 65 -21.9% -29.3% 37% 34% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 34% -2.4%
10% -36.1% 31% -11.7%
15% -42.3% 25% -20.3%
20% -47.9% 23% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -95% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$622 vs −$278 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

726d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$3,548
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses24 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage726d
Avg bet$669
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+5%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 31¢ 18¢ $49 $29 −$20 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $53 −$52 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$10 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 +$17 +50%
Eagles vs. Chargers Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Bills Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 16 $5,773 −$5,773 -100%
76ers vs. Grizzlies Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Alabama vs. Indiana Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jun 16 $148 −$148 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 16 $147 −$147 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 03 $800 −$537 -67%
Pistons vs. Lakers Jan 01 $35 +$26 +75%
Bears vs. 49ers Dec 29 $109 +$100 +92%
Cowboys vs. Lions Dec 09 $100 +$59 +59%
Eagles vs. Packers Nov 16 $68 +$58 +85%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 09 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 09 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Baeza win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? May 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Owen Almighty win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? May 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Journalism win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? May 20 $75 +$25 +33%
Will Michigan State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? May 03 $440 −$440 -100%
Will Bo Nix win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Mar 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Snoop Dogg perform during Super Bowl LIX halftime show? Mar 24 $32 −$32 -100%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Mar 24 $151 −$151 -100%
Commanders vs. Lions Mar 24 $585 −$585 -100%
Will Biden finish his term? Mar 24 $3,550 +$1,167 +33%
Steelers vs. Ravens Jan 16 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship? Jan 16 $275 −$275 -100%
Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 16 $284 −$284 -100%
Will the Lions win the NFC North? Jan 06 $300 +$480 +160%
Taylor Swift engaged in 2024? Jan 06 $617 −$617 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? Jan 06 $328 −$161 -49%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the AFC North? Jan 06 $353 −$353 -100%
Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty? Jan 06 $1,407 +$2,342 +166%
Will the San Francisco 49ers make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? Dec 18 $531 +$753 +142%
Will the Indianapolis Colts make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? Dec 18 $646 +$88 +14%
No Brian Thompson Perp arrested by Sunday? Dec 09 $438 +$514 +117%
Will the Seattle Seahawks make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? Dec 05 $310 −$20 -6%
Will the Miami Dolphins make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? Dec 03 $530 −$283 -53%
Steelers vs. Bengals Dec 02 $188 +$399 +212%
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 18 $569 +$88 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November? Nov 12 $3,600 −$600 -17%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? Nov 12 $2,080 +$2,841 +137%
Lions vs. Texans Nov 11 $410 +$590 +144%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $7,117 −$35 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $7,845 +$2,477 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $10 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 26¢ $5 9d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $12 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 9d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $38 10d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $20 12d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $263 22d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 22d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 22d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $44 22d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $35 158d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 158d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $109 158d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $800 158d
Seahawks vs. 49ers BUY 49ers 42¢ $148 172d
Alabama vs. Indiana BUY Alabama 30¢ $78 175d
76ers vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 50¢ $10 176d
Pistons vs. Lakers BUY Pistons 57¢ $35 176d
Bears vs. 49ers BUY 49ers 52¢ $109 178d
Eagles vs. Chargers BUY Eagles 52¢ $50 198d
Cowboys vs. Lions BUY Lions 63¢ $100 202d
Buccaneers vs. Bills BUY Buccaneers 25¢ $25 221d
Eagles vs. Packers BUY Eagles 54¢ $2 226d
Eagles vs. Packers BUY Eagles 54¢ $40 226d
Eagles vs. Packers BUY Eagles 54¢ $7 226d
Eagles vs. Packers BUY Eagles 54¢ $7 226d
Eagles vs. Packers BUY Eagles 54¢ $11 226d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 28¢ $225 358d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.56 · official $75.56 (match) · 674 history records