Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:05:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeaf1…6d30 world 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 19L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$407per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$6
other 16% −$2
politics 16% −$2
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
all 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,199) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage93d
Avg bet$407
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 29 $1,306 −$1 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $55 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 29 $1,261 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 27? Jun 28 $82 $0 +0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 28 $1,282 −$2 -0%
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026? Jun 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 28 $1,319 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $68 $0 +0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 26 $1,246 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO Jun 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 26 $1,199 −$2 -0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 13 $121 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Apr 13 $75 $0 -0%
Will Como win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Apr 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $146 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio Apr 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 28 $163 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,305 30m
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 39m
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 48m
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,286 54m
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,260 1h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,261 2h
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,280 36h
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $13 36h
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,272 37h
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 37h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $958 37h
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $69 37h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $359 37h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,319 37h
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,245 2d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO SELL No 100¢ $19 2d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,223 2d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO BUY No 100¢ $19 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $870 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $68 3d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $23 3d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $328 3d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,199 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records