Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:17:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeaf1…3fbf other 46 markets active 3h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,759 (+20%) realized +$9,576 · open +$183
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate66%23W / 12L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$1,045per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$893now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$455
7 days+$1,054
14 days+$2,746
30 days+$8,440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$6,894
other 28% +$2,116
tech 18% +$703
politics 11% +$41
sports 1% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -24.4% -31.6% 45% 45% +9.8%
≤30d 30 -10.2% -18.7% 63% 40% +9.4%
≤90d 35 -10.1% -18.7% 66% 40% +8.6%
all 35 -10.1% -18.7% 66% 40% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 40% +8.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 29% -1.8%
15% -33.6% 17% -11.3%
20% -40.1% 9% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,784) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$459 vs −$88 · ×5.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.95 per $1 lost it wins $9.95
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$893
Realized+$9,576
Unrealized+$183
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses23 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions11
Markets (closed)35 / 46
History coverage44d
Avg bet$1,045
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 34¢ 56¢ $238 $395 +$157 (+66%)
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 86¢ 94¢ $172 $189 +$17 (+10%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $150 +$50 (+50%)
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $33 $61 +$28 (+86%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-15%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $567 +$220 +39%
Will Jordan concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? Jun 27 $1,506 +$383 +25%
Cap FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 27 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $202 +$65 +32%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $569 −$76 -13%
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 23 $1,758 +$621 +35%
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 23 $12 −$7 -62%
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 23 $99 +$36 +36%
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 22 $65 −$40 -62%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $5,210 +$41 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $3,823 +$974 +26%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $2,648 +$159 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $900 +$652 +72%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,784 +$7 +0%
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 18 $221 +$39 +18%
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 18 $146 +$18 +13%
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +67%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $105 −$53 -50%
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -92%
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 18 $155 −$155 -100%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 17 $86 +$8 +9%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $66 +$2 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $5,246 +$227 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $3,480 +$516 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $7,805 +$5,324 +68%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $945 −$275 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $2,533 +$167 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $360 −$265 -74%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 29 $890 +$9 +1%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,040 +$260 +25%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $146 +$12 +8%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $4,786 +$814 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $100 2h
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 29h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 29h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 20¢ $32 29h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will Jordan concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will Jordan concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will Jordan concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will Jordan concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 0¢ $2 29h
Will Jordan concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 0¢ $7 29h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 29h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 20¢ $0 29h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 20¢ $0 29h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 20¢ $0 29h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 20¢ $6 29h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 20¢ $1 29h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 55¢ $3 30h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 55¢ $5 30h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 55¢ $102 30h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 25¢ $50 30h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 47¢ $477 31h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 43¢ $44 31h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 43¢ $7 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $893.37 · official $891.94 (match) · 689 history records