Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeaf4…673c other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$1
other 31% −$1
crypto 6% −$1
economics 5% $0
politics 5% $0
finance 4% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.6% -10.1% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 15 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 51 -4.2% -13.3% 41% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -9.8%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage470d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $31 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $58 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $29 −$1 -3%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $31 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $62 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $29 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $29 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $30 −$1 -2%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Dec 14 $11 $0 +2%
Will Gregory Rusland be the next president of Suriname after the elect Dec 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -24%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13? Jun 10 $7 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 10 $2 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 -1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? May 24 $11 $0 +2%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 22 $11 $0 -1%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? May 22 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 16 $21 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 11 $11 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 08 $11 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $12 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 28? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
US military action against Iran before April? Mar 28 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Israeli military action against Iran by Friday? Mar 23 $4 $0 +3%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $12 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $14 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $3 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $11 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $28 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $30 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $31 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $17 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $17 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $25 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $17 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $12 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $32 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $32 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $29 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $4 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $24 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $7 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $24 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 92¢ $31 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $25 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $3 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $29 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.51 · official $28.17 (match) · 185 history records