Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeaf6…0f8a weather 308 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$695 (-2%) realized −$714 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate91%269W / 25L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$418
14 days−$233
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 65% +$118
world 22% +$552
sports 11% −$1,327
politics 2% +$8
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -1.3% -10.7% 90% 15% -18.0%
≤30d 220 +1.2% -8.4% 94% 19% -9.9%
≤90d 294 +0.7% -8.9% 91% 19% -11.1%
all 294 +0.7% -8.9% 91% 19% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 19% -11.1%
10% -17.6% 5% -19.6%
15% -25.6% 2% -27.4%
20% -32.9% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$149 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$1,305
Realized−$714
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses269 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions14
Markets (closed)294 / 308
History coverage94d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 294 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 81¢ 98¢ $243 $294 +$52 (+21%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $172 $180 +$8 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? No 90¢ 92¢ $165 $168 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $118 $119 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 19? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? No 87¢ 92¢ $70 $74 +$4 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? No 92¢ 96¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? No 96¢ 95¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? No 88¢ 87¢ $44 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? No 85¢ 84¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 30¢ 12¢ $90 $38 −$52 (-58%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $110 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 18? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $73 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $315 +$23 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $66 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $74 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $118 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $62 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $108 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $75 +$5 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $99 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 15 $76 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $40 +$10 +24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $116 +$4 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $60 +$40 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $75 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $58 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $78 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $57 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $478 −$478 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $32 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $53 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $54 +$5 +8%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $50 +$6 +12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $79 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $106 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $97 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$2 +17%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$9 +93%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $53 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $172 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $97 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,304.80 · official $1,302.65 (match) · 1305 history records