Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:38:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EA 0xeaf6…044d sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$199 (-6%) realized −$202 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$145
7 days−$1,016
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$73
other 31% +$81
crypto 7% −$105
world 3% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -50.5% -55.2% 29% 29% -47.2%
≤30d 21 +2.4% -7.3% 38% 38% -7.4%
≤90d 21 +2.4% -7.3% 38% 38% -7.4%
all 21 +2.4% -7.3% 38% 38% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 38% -7.4%
10% -16.2% 38% -16.2%
15% -24.3% 38% -24.3%
20% -31.7% 33% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$200 vs −$126 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$259
Realized−$202
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 26
History coverage9d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $157 $158 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $99 $100 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 +$57 +57%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $112 −$109 -97%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 20 $63 +$49 +78%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 19 $149 +$65 +43%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $200 −$194 -97%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 18 $98 −$97 -99%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 17 $153 −$153 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $200 +$159 +79%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 16 $168 −$165 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $92 −$90 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $254 −$250 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $125 −$107 -85%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $232 +$195 +84%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $171 −$170 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $101 +$602 +596%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $123 +$306 +249%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $100 +$165 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $159 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $159 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $59 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $112 7h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles SELL Hanwha Eagles 100¢ $112 10h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 55¢ $63 15h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 31h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 31h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles SELL Hanwha Eagles 48¢ $214 33h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 33¢ $149 38h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $200 2d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 55¢ $9 2d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 53¢ $23 2d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 53¢ $7 2d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 53¢ $59 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 19¢ $102 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 16¢ $105 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $102 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 48¢ $4 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 48¢ $1 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 48¢ $75 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 48¢ $5 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 48¢ $10 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 48¢ $0 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 48¢ $14 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 48¢ $10 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 48¢ $4 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 48¢ $31 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 55¢ $200 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.64 · official $262.30 · 65 history records